8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Feb 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/04/2005

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Main Features
About this Release

FEBRUARY KEY FIGURES

		Feb 05	Jan 05 to Feb 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,446.6	0.0
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,551.9	0.6

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates, Percentage change

FEBRUARY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

There was no change in the trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series in February 2005. This follows a revised estimate of 0.0% in January 2005 and a 0.1% decrease in December 2004.
In February 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate in Tasmania (+0.6%), the Northern Territory (+0.6%), South Australia (+0.3%) and New South Wales (+0.1%). These increases were offset by a decrease in the trend in Queensland (-0.2%), Victoria (-0.1%) and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.1%).
Over the three months to February 2005 the trend estimate decreased by $11m. Hospitality and services (-$51m), Other retailing (-$28m) and Food retailing (-$17m) decreased, while Household good retailing (+$35m) and Department stores (+$23m) had the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.6% in February 2005. This followed a similar increase of 0.6% in January 2005.
All states, except the Australian Capital Territory (-0.6%), had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The Northern Territory (+2.3%), South Australia (+1.5%), Western Australia (+1.0%) and Victoria (+0.9%) had the largest increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 9.1% in February 2005 compared with January 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 11.3%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 6.0%.
Australian turnover decreased by 0.8% in February 2005 compared with February 2004, which had 29 days. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.3%, while 'smaller' retailers fell by 7.0%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for February 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	14,549.4	117.6
Change from preceding month ($m)	-1,457.4	46.2
% change from preceding month (%)	-9.1	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After four months of being in decline, the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend series has had no change for two months. In February 2005, Department stores and Recreational good retailing had strong trend growth, Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing had moderate trend growth with all other industries being in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for six months. Queensland and Western Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate in each of these months. New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory have had flat or weak growth for at least three months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There was strong growth in the trend estimate for February 2005. Of the published states New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia had strong growth in February 2005.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There was moderate growth in the trend for February 2005. Victoria has had strong growth in the trend estimate for two months. New South Wales and Western Australia have had weak growth for four months while Queensland and South Australia have been in decline for seven months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been eight months of moderate trend growth. This growth has been driven by the strong growth in New South Wales in this period. In contrast, Victoria, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for two or more months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

After three months of moderate growth, there was strong growth in the trend in February 2005. Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had three, four and eight months of strong growth respectively. New South Wales has had moderate to strong growth for five months while Victoria and Tasmania have been in decline for at least six months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for six months. New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for at least twelve months, Queensland has been in decline for five months and Western Australia has been in decline for three months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for the last two months. Over the last five months, the rate of trend growth has been stronger than that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

The trend has been in decline for the last nine months. New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for at least five months. After eleven months of being in decline Queensland has had weak growth for two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth for the last two months. Household good retailing has had eight months of strong growth and Recreational good retailing has had four months of moderate or strong growth. Food retailing and Clothing and soft good retailing have had weak growth for at least three months while Other retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least eight months.

VICTORIA

The trend has been in decline for the last five months. Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline in their trend estimates for at least five months while Household good retailing industry has been in decline for the last two months. In contrast, Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing had strong growth for February 2005.

QUEENSLAND

The trend has been in decline for the last six months. Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline for at least four months. After eleven months of being in decline, Hospitality and services has had weak trend growth for the last two months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been weak trend growth for the last three months. Food retailing, the largest contributor, has had weak growth for six months. Household good retailing has had weak growth for two months. Department stores and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for at least two months while Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least seven months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been no change in the trend for the last two months. Food retailing and Other retailing have been in decline for at least three months, while Household good retailing has had moderate trend growth for four months and Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for eight months.

TASMANIA

There has been moderate trend growth for three months. There has been moderate or strong growth in Food retailing for seven months, Household good retailing for nine months and Hospitality and services for four months. Recreational good retailing has been in decline for six months.